CHAPTER 19 Decision Theory 商务统计学概论(英文第四版) 教学课件.pptVIP

CHAPTER 19:Decision Theory to accompany Introduction to Business Statistics fourth edition, by Ronald M. Weiers Presentation by Priscilla Chaffe-Stengel Donald N. Stengel ? 2002 The Wadsworth Group Chapter 19 - Learning Objectives Express a decision situation in terms of decision alternatives, states of nature, and payoffs. Differentiate between non-Bayesian and Bayesian decision criteria. Determine the expected payoff for a decision alternative. Calculate and interpret the expected value of perfect information. Express and analyze the decision situation in terms of opportunity loss and expected opportunity loss. Apply incremental analysis to inventory-level decisions. Chapter 19 - Key Terms Levels of doubt Risk Uncertainty Ignorance Decision situation Decision alternatives States of nature Probabilities Expected payoff Maximin criteria Maximax criteria Minimax regret Expected value of perfect information Expected opportunity loss Incremental analysis The Decision Situation The decision maker can control which decision alternative (row) is selected but cannot determine which state of nature (column) will occur. The decision alternative is selected prior to knowing the state of nature. An Example Problem 19.34: A ski resort operator must decide before the winter season whether he will lease a snow-making machine. If he has no machine, he will make $20,000 if the winter is mild, $30,000 if it is typical, and $50,000 if the winter is severe. If he decides to lease the machine, his profits for these conditions will be $30,000, $35,000, and $40,000, respectively. The probability of a mild winter is 0.3, with a 0.5 chance of a typical winter and a 0.2 chance of a severe winter. If the operater wants to maximize his expected profit, should he lease the machine? What is the most he should be willing to pay for a perfect forecast? The Decision Situation: An Example The decision alternatives are: The operator does not lease the snow-making machine. T