基于一元非线性回归技术实现的短期负荷预测毕业设计.doc

毕业设计说明书 基于一元非线性回归技术实现的 短期负荷预测 学生姓名： 班级学号： 院、系、部： 专 业： 指导教师： 合作指导教师： 月 南 京 Undergraduate Design Short-term load forecastING Based on one yuan of non-linear regression technology  BY Chen Ting Supervised by Lecturer TAO LI School of Electric Power Engineering Nanjing Institute of Technology June 2008摘 要 电力负荷预测是电力系统调度、用电、计划、规划等管理部门的重要工作之一。负荷预测的核心问题是预测的技术方法，或者说是预测的数学模型。随着现代科学技术的快速发展，负荷预测技术的研究也在不断深化。 本文根据苏州市2003年电网的实际情况，分析了苏州日负荷曲线的走势和特点，并研究开发了该地区电网短期负荷预测系统。该系统基于回归预测法对其进行了24点负荷预测，可以使运行人员根据负荷变化的具体情况来进行预测。文中将使用不同的非线性回归预测模型进行预测，对结果进行分析比较，并在此基础上对影响负荷精度的主要原因加以分析，提出了改进措施。 关键词 负荷预测，回归预测法，误差分析，负荷曲线 Abstract The power load forecasting is one of the important job of the management department, which is responsible for dispatching, consumption and planning of the electric. The core problem of load forecasting is the technology or the digital model. With modern science and technology is developing rapidly, load forecasting technology research has been strengthened continuously. Based on the grid’s actual situation of the load curve in Suzhou City in 2003, this article analyze the movement and characteristics of day’s load curve, develop the power grids short-term load forecasting system in the region. The system is based on projections of return and forecast their load by 24 points.The operating officer can make forecast according to the specific circumstances of the load changes. The article will use a different non-linear regression model to predict forecast, analyze and compare the results , and on this basis, analyze the main reasons which have an impact on the load accuracy, propose the improvement measures. Key Words load forecasting, regression , error analysis, load curve 目 录 摘 要 IAbstract I 1 绪 论 12 电力负荷预测概述 2 2.1 负荷预测的基本概念 2 2.2 负荷预测的特点 2 2.3 负荷预测的影响因素分析 3 2.4 电力系统短期负荷特性分析 5 2.5 负荷预测的基本原理 7 2.6 负荷预测的基本程序 8 2.7 本章小结 12 3 负荷预测方法的介绍 13 3