The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models精选.pptVIP

The slow convergence of Top-Down and Bottom-Up Energy Models Richard Loulou GERAD and McGill University GERAD-25 Montreal 1. Introduction: Energy models are in active use and development. Why? Energy security (oil and gas reserves) Energy costs (oil, electricity, natural gas) Atmospheric pollution (environmental and health impacts) Climate Change Sustainable development Most of these concerns are either new or have new importance Major dimensions of an ideal model Market reforms Liberalization deregulation, re-regulation of electricity Technological development: RD, deployment, “learning investments”, speed of penetration, vertical technology integration (reserves, supply, infrastructure, distribution, end-uses), horizontal integration: competing technologies (who wins?), technological portfolio (how many win?) Unequal time scales: a few hours (pollution peaks), a year (average air quality), a few decades (investments), a few centuries (climate change) Environmental policies: taxes, subsidies, portfolio standards, green labeling, permit trading, international treaties (Kyoto) Consumer education, (dis)incentives (acceptance of) Impacts of policies on economies (energy intensive industries, competitiveness, level playing field) Equity issues: permit allowances, tax redistribution Multiple dimensions means multiple modeling approaches … or do they? Top-Down models: main economic feedbacks, succinct technological detail Bottom-up models: rich detailed technology representation, succinct or absent economic feedbacks. Hybrid models: NEMS (USA), MARKAL-MACRO, MESSAGE-11R (global), CIMS (Canada), PRIMES (Europe). Can (should) this dichotomy be challenged? TD reaching down? B-U reaching up? (my focus) Linked models? T-D models come in several varieties Simulation (disequilibrium) models: econometric propagation models: simulation of evolution in base case and in perturbed scenarios. Few feedbacks are modeled, no market clearing prices are attempted. usu