Regionalscale GISmodels for assessment of hazards from英文资料.pdfVIP

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences (2003) 3: 647–662 Natural Hazards © European Geosciences Union 2003 and Earth System Sciences Regional-scale GIS-models for assessment of hazards from glacier lake outbursts: evaluation and application in the Swiss Alps ¨ ¨ C. Huggel, A. Kaab, W. Haeberli, and B. Krummenacher ¨ ¨ Glaciology and Geomorphodynamics Group, Department of Geography, University of Zurich, 8057 Zurich, Switzerland Received: 9 January 2003 – Accepted: 3 April 2003 Abstract. Debris flows triggered by glacier lake outbursts order hazard assessment is understood as a first hazard es- have repeatedly caused disasters in various high-mountain timate and assessment, including modelling studies at re- regions of the world. Accelerated change of glacial and gional scale (covering an area of about 5 × 101 to 1 × 4 2 periglacial environments due to atmospheric warming and 10 km ). Thus, a conclusive assessment usually cannot yet increased anthropogenic development in most of these areas be achieved. raise the need for an adequate hazard assessment and cor- Accelerated changes of glacial and periglacial environ- responding modelling. The purpose of this paper is to pro- ments due to atmospheric warming make a continuously up- vide a modelling approach which takes into account the