德银-新兴市场-外汇市场-新兴市场外汇投资组合更新.pdfVIP

Deutsche Bank Research Emerging Markets Economics Date Foreign Exchange 23 January 2018 FX Spot FX Volatility Gautam Kalani, Ph.D. Strategist EM FX (+44) 20 754-57066 gautam.kalani@ EMEA FX Portfolio Update and Chartpack: Riding the Randwagon In this report, we provide an update of our EMEA FX views and recent trades, along with corresponding charts. We begin by re-iterating our bullish view on broader EM FX, and with this backdrop then delve into the views on specific EMEA currencies. In sum, we are bullish on ZAR, TRY (tactically via options), HUF; neutral on RUB, CZK; bearish on ILS (tactically). We continue to believe in the long-term positive story for PLN, but are somewhat cautious at current levels given the recent outperformance. Recent EMEA FX trades: 1) 6m 12.60 USDZAR digital put initiated in early December (15% cost); currently worth 65%  we recommend taking profit on this trade 2) Short USDZAR, initiated in early January (spot 12.45); return since initiation: +3.1%  we recommend maintaining this trade, with a 2% trailing stop 3) 3m 3.65 USDTRY digital put initiated in early January (12% cost); still worth around the same amount  we recommend maintaining this trade 4) Short USDRUB initiated in early November (spot 59.4); return since initiation: +4.8%  we recommend taking profit on this trade 5) Short EURHUF initiated in