上财名师金融计量课件（研究生）.pdfVIP

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上财名师金融计量课件（研究生）.pdf

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上财名师金融计量课件（研究生）

Chapter 1 Introduction ‘Financial Econometrics’ Lectured by Dr. Jin Hongfei 1 Introduction: The Nature and Purpose of Econometrics • What is Econometrics(计量经济学)? • Literal meaning is “measurement in economics”. • Definition of financial econometrics(金融计量学): The application of statistical and mathematical techniques to problems in finance. ‘Financial Econometrics’ Lectured by Dr. Jin Hongfei 2 Examples of the kind of problems that may be solved by an Econometrician 1. Testing whether financial markets are weak-form informationally efficient. 2. Testing whether the CAPM or APT represent superior models for the determination of returns on risky assets. 3. Measuring and forecasting the volatility of bond returns. 4. Explaining the determinants of bond credit ratings used by the ratings agencies. 5. Modelling long-term relationships between prices and exchange rates ‘Financial Econometrics’ Lectured by Dr. Jin Hongfei 3 Examples of the kind of problems that may be solved by an Econometrician (cont’d) 6. Determining the optimal hedge ratio for a spot position in oil. 7. Testing technical trading rules to determine which makes the most money. 8. Testing the hypothesis that earnings or dividend announcements have no effect on stock prices. 9. Testing whether spot or futures markets react more rapidly to news. 10.Forecasting the correlation between the returns to the stock indices of two countries. ‘Financial Econometrics’ Lectured by Dr. Jin Hongfei 4 What are the Special Characteristics of Financial Data? • Frequency quantity o