公司财务困境预测：普拉特思考选择为基础的抽样偏差外文翻译（可编辑）.doc

公司财务困境预测：普拉特思考选择为基础的抽样偏差外文翻译 Predicting Corporate Financial Distress:Reflections on Choice-Based Sample Bias Material Source:Engineering and Technology 2009Author: Harlan D.Platt Assessing the financial strength of companies has traditionally been the domain of parties external to the firm,such as investors,creditors,auditors,government regulators,and other stakeholders.More recently,because competition has spawned intimate relationships between manufacturers and their component suppliers,now manufacturers are concerned about the financial health of their suppliers and vice versa.From a supply chain management perspective,if a manufacturer can help one of its suppliers ameliorate problems and thereby avoid bankruptcy,it is in both partiesinterest to do so.Reliance on reactive distress signals such as delayed shipments,problems with product quality,warnings from the suppliers bank,or observations made during company visits to indicate near-term financial difficulties reduces the options and the time available to act and remedy the situation An early warning system model that anticipates financial distress of supplier firms provides management of purchasing companies with a powerful tool to help identify and,it is hoped,rectify problems before they reach a crisis.Because of long-term contracts with selected and certified suppliers,large manufacturers are increasingly interested in the financial health of these suppliers in order to avoid disruption to their own production and distribution schedules.Financial distress is defined as a late stage of corporate decline that precedes more cataclysmic events such as bankruptcy or liquidation.Information that a firm is approaching distress can precipitate managerial actions to forestall problems before they occur,can invite a merger or takeover by a more solvent or better-managed enterprise,and can provide an early warning of possible future bankruptcy. While there is abundant literature describing prediction mode