对信贷紧缩政策的消费反应外文文献.pdf

Consumption Response to Credit Tightening Policy: Evidence from Turkey1 * Sumit Agarwal, Muris Hadzic, and Yildiray Yildirim Abstract We study the impact of credit tightening policy implemented by Turkish banking regulation and supervision agency on consumer spending in the period between January 2010 and August 2013. We find that the consumers with high amount of debt were severely affected compared to the group of consumers with low debt. Following the implementation of the policy, relative spending of highly indebted consumers dropped significantly and persisted for many months after the policy date. The policy effect was strongest for consumers that are young, married, and have past credit card debt. Keywords: Consumption, Spending, Debt, Credit Cards, Household Finance, Banks, Loans, Durable Goods, Discretionary Spending, Fiscal Policy, Liquidity Constraints, Credit Constraints. JEL Classification: D12, D14, D91, E21, E51, E62, G21, H31 1We benefited from the comments of Gene Amromin, Souphala Chomsisengphet, David Laibson, Jonathan Parker, Ivan Png, Nagpurnanand Prabhala, Wenlan Qian, Tarun Ramadorai, Amit Seru, and Nick Souleles and seminar participants at the National University of Singapore and Syracuse University. *Agarwal, ushakri@, Department of Economics, Finance and Real Estate, National University of Singapore, 15 Kent Ridge Drive, Singapore 119245; Hadzic, mhadzic@, Whitman School of Management, Syracuse University, 721 University Avenue, Syracuse, NY 13244; Yildirim, yildiray.yildirim@, Department of