[应用文书]全球市场策略与展望中英文.docVIP

指久期加权债券After a few fairly quiet months, volatility returned with some force in June. Most of the action was in bonds rather than equities, but all financial markets experienced gyrations. The two themes that played out over June were strong global growth and concerns over the US housing market. As these issues are in conflict with one another, markets experienced volatility. Solid global growth is good for equities as corporate profits will be strong but bad for bonds as growth eventually winds its way into higher inflation. ??????? 经过几个月的平静，6月的市场恢复以往的波动。虽然大多数的振荡发生在债券市场而非股票市场，但是整个金融市场表现出一种上下起伏的回旋状态。 6月的市场有两大主题：强势的全球增长以及对美国房地产市场的关注。由于这两大主题之间存在矛盾，市场出现不安定的波动状态。全球经济稳步增长对股票有良好推动作用，企业可从中获益，但也因此最终将导致通货膨胀率的上升，从而对债券不利。 ??????? Over the first fortnight of June, as positive economic data was released, bonds sold off and equities rallied. In the middle of the month news broke that a couple of hedge funds managed by Bear Sterns that are invested into securities linked to US sub-prime mortgages were either going to go bust or would need substantial rescuing. This revived the concern in the markets that the drag from US housing is likely to spread in a very negative way across the US economy and could ultimately damage global growth. Bonds managed to rally over the second part of June whilst equities sold off. ??????? 在6月的前两周，由于利好经济数据的公布，债券跳水，股票走高。但是6月中旬，消息传出由贝尔斯登（Bear Sterns）所管理的两支对冲基金因为其投资了与美国次级抵押债券挂钩的有价证券而面临破产，这使得整个市场重生美国房地产的不景气将会阻碍美国经济发展、并会最终损害全球经济增长的担忧。因此，债券在6月下旬走强而股票遭到抛售。 ??????? Our view continues to be that US housing weakness will be a major drag on US growth this year but the risk of US recession as a result of the housing downturn is very low. The reason for this is that US housing whilst important, represents only 5% of the economy, and as such is not large enough to drag the whole economy down. Many commentators point to the flow on risk to consumption from a fall in house prices, which is clearly a big issue. ??????? 我们仍然认为美国房产业的疲弱将会在今年成为阻碍全美经济增长的主要因素，但由于房地产的低迷而导致美国整