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[信息与通信]LIGHTCOUNTING:互联网泡沫10年后光通信产业现状
State of the Optical Communications Industry
State of the Optical Communications Industry
10 years after the internet bubble
10 years after the internet bubble
September 2009
September 2009
© Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential.
Industry Supply Chain as of 2009
Industry Supply Chain as of 2009
© Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 2
Industry Supply Chain as of 1999
Industry Supply Chain as of 1999
Alcatel
Fujitsu
Lucent
Marconi
NEC
Nortel
© Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 3
Profitability across the supply chain
Profitability across the supply chain
© Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 4
Sales of Optical Components by 2000
Sales of Optical Components by 2000
50-100 % annual growth
© Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 5
2000 Forecast and Reality
2000 Forecast and Reality
© Copyright 2009 LightCounting All material proprietary and confidential. 6
What has gone wrong?
What has gone wrong?
• Technological challenges
• Does Moore’s law really work in optics?
• Forecast issues
• What is the real traffic growth rate?
• How is it correlated with sales of optical components?
• Business model issues
• Can vendors be profitable selling commodity products into
a consolidate customer base?
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