[工学]含分布式发电的微网随机生产模拟.pdfVIP

摘 要 分布式发电具有清洁环保、投资少、发电方式灵活等优点，因此越来越受到人们的关 注，成为未来电力系统发展的重要方向。而微网的出现，提供了相应的控制、保护和能量 管理技术，对解决分布式发电波动性，潮流方向等问题起到了重要的作用。分布式发电中 的风力发电和太阳能光伏发电存在着波动性与不确定性，出力情况难以估计，本文对其进 行了研究。随机生产模拟作为电力系统规划和发电计划制定的重要工具，运用于分布式发 电中，能够对其发电量和可靠性问题进行研究。随机生产模拟的方法众多，本文主要介绍 了卷积法和等效电量函数法，详细地说明了这两类方法的原理、计算过程，并将这两类方 法应用到分布式发电生产模拟中。用Matlab 编程，实现了对这两个方法的仿真。算例采用 不同的模拟周期，不同的负荷测量时间间隔，以获得更多的数据。得到结果后，就可靠性 指标、程序运行时间等进行对比分析，得到这两类方法的优缺点，同时说明该微网系统的 可靠性。 关键词：分布式发电，微网，随机生产模拟 I ABSTRACT Since distributed generation(DG) has various advantages including clean and environmental friendly, less investment as well as flexible ways of Power Plant ，more and more people pay attention to it, becoming an important trend to the future power system. Accordingly, the presence of Micro -grid provides DG with the technology of control, protection and energy management, which plays an important role in solving the problem of distr ibuted generation volatility and the flow direction. However, solar photovoltaic power and wind power contain ed in DG have a problem of volatility and uncertain, so that it is hard to estimate their output, as is studied in this paper. As a vital tool of p lanning power system and making generation schedule used in DG, probabilistic production simulation can analyze the problem of its generating capacity and reliability. There’re many probabilistic production simulation methods, while this paper focuses on the convolution method and the equivalent energy function method (EEF), discussing detailed description of the principles and calculations of two methods, thus applying them to distributed generation. Afterwards, programming in Matlab based on the two method