电线覆冰预报模型研究综述-中国气象局图书馆.PDF

气象科技 进展 电线覆冰预报模型研究综述 1 2 3 3 4 庄文兵 张海斌 赵宏宇 吴世新 万明阳 （1 国网新疆电力公司电力科学研究院，乌鲁木齐 830001；2 国网重庆市电力公司电力科学研究院，重庆 400000； 3 北京国网富达科技发展有限责任公司，北京 100070；4 象辑知源（武汉）科技有限公司，北京 100084） 摘要：我国地域广阔、地形复杂、气候多变，输电系统面临相当严重的覆冰灾害威胁。导线覆冰导致的电力系统事故， 严重影响了正常的国民经济生活。为了保证电网系统安全可靠的运行，有必要对输电线路导线覆冰的预测模型进行深入 研究。首先总结了电线覆冰的相关气象因素，然后列举了一些比较典型的经验和半经验模型，综合阐述了覆冰物理过程 的流体力学和热力学理论，最后对国内的覆冰预测模型研究现状做了简要介绍。 关键词：电线覆冰，物理模型，统计模型 DOI：10.3969/j.issn.2095-1973.2017.02.001 Review of the Research for Powerline Icing Prediction 1 2 3 3 4 Zhuang Wenbing , Zhang Haibing , Zhao Hongyu , Wu Shixin , Wan Mingyang (1 Xinjiang Electric Power Research Institute, Urumqi 830011 2 Electric Power Research Institute, State Grid Chongqing Electric Power Corporation, Chongqing 400000 3 Beijing State Grid Fuda Science Technology Development Co.Ltd., Beijing 100070, 4 Xiangjizhiyuan (Wuhan) Technology Co.Ltd., Beijing 100084) Abstract: China’s various territories, complex terrain and changing climate, results in frequent power line icing disaster, which is a serious threat to the normal national economic life. It is necessary to conduct in-depth study of ice coating of transmission line wires to ensure the safe and reliable operation of the power grid system. This paper firstly summarizes the relevant meteorological factors that cause the powerline icing, then enumerates some typical examples of empirical and semiempirical models of ice coating. The hydrodynamics and thermodynamics of the icing process are also described. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are compared and analyzed, and some recently developed statistical forecasting methods are briefly introduced. Finally