养老金与储蓄之间的替代关系 一个中国数据的实证分析.pdfVIP

养老金与储蓄之间的替代关系 ——一个中国数据的实证分析 周宇*1 中国经济研究中心 【摘要】养老金与私人储蓄之间的关系在政策评估中有着重要的意义，特别是在 社会保障制度选择方面，如个人养老金名义账户与个人养老金实账户之间的选 择，有着及其深远的意义。然而，国外实证结果表明二者之间的关系较为复杂， 尚未有定论；同时，国内文献中，未有学者对此问题进行研究。为了弥补国内文 献中的空白，为当前社会保障体制选择提供更为准确的参考，本文基于2002 年 中国家户收入调查数据，采用Difference-in-Difference 的方法，探讨我国城镇居 民个人账户养老金缴费率和私人储蓄之间的替代关系。实证结果显示，我国的城 镇居民个人养老金缴费率和私人储蓄之间的替代率在0.5 左右；同时以上二者替 代率随年龄的增长而上升。以上实证结果表明，由于强制性养老金缴费也是私人 储蓄的一种，在中国二者替代率较低，采用个人养老金实账户制度会进一步提高 个人总储蓄率。 【关键字】养老金缴费率 私人储蓄率 个人账户 社会保障改革 1 周宇，中国经济研究中心硕士。联系方式：lindazhouyu@ 。 指导老师：易纲教授 Pension Wealth and Private Saving? The Evidence from China Yu Zhou Economics Directed by Prof. Gang Yi Abstract The relationship of pension wealth and private saving is of great importance on the policy evaluation such as establishing the effects of changes in pension legislation on saving behavior and so on. But the empirical evidence on the relationship is complex and the results are far from being conclusive. In this paper, based on recent data covering the detail information on individual pension expenditure, I attempt to estimate the impact of the pension wealth by using difference in difference method in recent pension reform varying across provinces and industry sectors. Moreover, in this paper, I attempt to apply non-linear specification to explore the different degree of substitutability of pension wealth and saving rate with difference age, education and income level. The outcome would be useful for pension policy choice in recent reform and other policy issues. Key Words: Pension Wealth, Saving Rate, Individ