全球碳预算报告2016.pdfVIP

Global Carbon Budget 2016 Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO ) emissions and their redistribution 2 among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere – the “global carbon budget” – is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon bud- get, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates and consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and industry (EFF ) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respec- tively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC ), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM ) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the an- nual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND ) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of indepen- dent dynamic global vegetation models. We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their var