全球铜展望2014.pdfVIP

March 2014 Global copper long-term outlook Q1 2014 Executive summary The copper market ended 2013 in its third consecutive year of surplus. As inventories built up through the pipe line prices came under pressure and by the end of the year copper was around 11% off its early February 2013 highs of $8346/t. Mine supply came through strongly, up 8% year-on-year, supported by a recovery in output at existing operations. This was also a year in which disruptions were lower than average, accounting for just 663kt, or 3.5% of mine supply. Tight scrap availability and a build-up of concentrate inventory through the supply chain limited growth of refined production, resulting in a surplus of just 90kt with inventories of refined metal slipping to 70 days in terms of consumption by the end of 2013. 2014 will register another year of robust mine production growth, however sluggish scrap markets may temper the pace of refined output growth along with direct use scrap even as some concentrate stocks that had built up last year are consumed at smelters. As the global economic recovery begins to gather pace, we anticipate a more broad based consumption growth outlook for copper, with less reliance on China. Despite the scrap constraint, we still expect the market to register another year of surplus, of around 385kt, with a consequent increase to 72 stock days of consumption and prices are forecast to trade lower to an average of $6795/t. So far this year the market has been hit by a wave of negative sentiment manifesting in a 13% decline in prices since January. Concerns about the overall health of the Chinese economy and its credit issues were amplified by weak Chinese exports (down by 18% in February year on year in US$ terms), and the recent onshore bond default by a Chinese solar panel maker. All these factors combined resulted in a currency sell-off, a slide in its equity markets, and multiple downgrades to growth forecasts. Chinese market makers were rum