天然气液化燃料：美国潜在能源投资机遇.pdf

NATURAL GAS BASED LIQUID FUELS: POTENTIAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATES Conducted by: MILES LIGHT Leeds School of Business University of Colorado Boulder JUNE 2014 NATURAL GAS BASED LIQUID FUELS:POTENTIAL INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES IN THE UNITED STATES synopsis This report highlights potential investment opportunities related to natural gas liquids. The research was conducted as a project for the Fuel Freedom Foundation. Low natural gas prices and new technology present an opportunity to market and sell liquid fuels in the form of ethanol and methanol to US consumers. Per unit of energy, oil is almost four times more expensive than natural gas. This implies a potential arbitrage opportunity to convert natural gas and natural gas liquids into a liquid fuel. In the US, 14.5 million vehicles can currently utilize ethanol fuels. These are so called “Flex Fuel” vehicles, or FFVs. Another 16.1 million FFV “Twins” can utilize ethanol with a software upgrade, and 46.9 million conventional fuel vehicles can potentially be converted for $150–$250 each. In all, this represents 77.75 million light duty vehicles, or 31.8% of the national light duty fleet, that would potentially purchase natural gas liquid fuel, if prices were attractive. The conversion and sale of NG based ethanol to US customers offers relatively high margins compared to other energy-arbitrage efforts, such as LNG exports, because conversion and shipping costs are lower for the local market, and because the replaced product (gasoline motor fuel) is expensive compared to natural gas. Alongside the core ethanol production opportunity, there are several related supply-chain development projects, such as production facility development, ethanol fuel marketing, fueling station upgrades, blending facility expansions, and vehicle update kits. Table 1: potential Fuel Replacement from oil Based to natural Gas Based Liquids (2014)