新兴国家_药品市场_2010(中国_巴西).pptVIP

PHARMERGING MARKETS Julian ThurstonCo-Chair Global Lifesciences GroupMorrison Foerster7th Floor, CitypointOne Ropemaker StreetLondonEC2Y 9AWTelephone: +44 20 7920 4050 Pharmerging Markets Who are they? B Brasil R Russia I India C China Mexico South Korea Turkey Pharmerging Markets IMS predicts: 33% global pharmaceutical sales will be in pharmerging markets by 2011 50% global pharmaceutical sales will be in pharmerging markets by 2020 In 2001 this was just 13% Reasons: Growing middle classes Wealth brings Western diseases eg obesity, diabetes Pharmerging Markets Classic development in 4 stages: Local generics businesses, no real IP laws IP laws based on TRIPS harmonisation, local science base starts to offer services to other countries – clinical trials/manufacturing (India, China, Brasil). Base line recognition of IP necessary for services contracts. Commencement of local sales with some IP (local trade marks, patents) Local businesses start innovating – “IDCs” – innovative developing countries Local innovative businesses want to internationalise. Just starting in Korea and Brasil. Pharmerging Markets – Strategic and Financial Impact No longer the just the “triad” – USA, EU, Japan Strategies developing to capture the value Affect on NPV/DCF models for: Financings Partnerings MA China - Healthcare Market Strong economic growth and increasing demand for better healthcare have made the country one of the most important emerging markets for multinational pharmaceutical companies One of China’s top priorities, as highlighted in its 11th five year economic development plan is the provision of basic healthcare services to the entire Chinese population by 2020. All forecasts indicate that China will become one of the world’s top five pharmaceutical markets by 2015. The Chinese market is big and growing With 1.3 billion people, China accounts for 22% of the world’s total China’s purchasing power is second only to the US In 2006 China ran