中国经济增长中的科技创新乘数的计量分析-cpeerorg.DOC

中国经济增长中的科技创新乘数效应：微观机理与宏观测算 吉林大学 纪玉山 吴勇民 白英姿 摘 要：本文分析了科技创新促进经济增长的微观传导机制：规模效应、集聚效应和乘数效应，在此逻辑下，利用我国1990—2005年的数据建立了我国经济增长与科技创新之间的协整方程，估算了科技创新乘数。结论表明，科技创新乘数效应在我国的经济增长中作用非常之小，我们认为，正是由于我国自主创新能力的不足，导致科技创新的传导机制难以发挥，从而在宏观上表现出较小的科技创新乘数。因此，进一步加大科技投入、积极扶持企业的自主创新、增强企业作为创新主体的协同优势、创造各种条件促使科技创新在全社会的扩散以及完善国家创新体系的建设便成了必然的政策选择。 关键词：科技创新 经济增长 科技创新乘数 自主创新 Multiplier Effect of Science and Technology Innovation in the Economic Growth of China: Microcosmic Mechanism and Macroscopic Estimation Ji Yushan Wu Yongmin Bai Yingzi Abstract: This text analyses the microcosmic mechanism which science and technology innovation promotes economic growth, which is scale effect, centralization effect and multiplier effect. On this logic, this text set up the cointegration function between the economic growth and the science and technology innovation according to the data of the 1990-2005 of china, and then estimates the multiplier of science and technology innovation. The conclusion indicates the multiplier effect of the science and technology innovation is very small. We consider it was the lack of self-innovation capability that had caused the transmission mechanism of science and technology innovation played a little role. So the multiplier is very small. Therefore, enlarging the investment of science and technology, supporting the self-innovation of firm actively, reinforcing the coordinated dominance of firm, promoting the diffusion of the scientific and technological innovations in the whole society and perfecting the establishment of a state innovation system become the necessary choices. Key words: science and technology innovation economic growth science and technology innovation multiplier self-innovation 科技创新对一个国家经济增长的巨大促进作用，已经被世界经济发展的历史所证实。在1000-1820年间，世界人均收入提高了50%，而在1820年之后，人均收入提高了8倍以上……而解释这些表现的三大因素之一就是技术与制度创新 [1]。尽管人们已经认识到科技创新是经济增长不可或缺的重要因素，但是，就科技创新对经济增长影响机理的探求以及影响程度的测算却鲜有人系统地论述。就其微观层面而言，科技创新对一个国家经济增长的促进作用是通过特定的传导机制得以实现，这种内在的微观机理是什么？在宏观层面上，无论何种层次的科技创新都会推动经济增