计量经济学第一章BasicEconometrics-chap1.ppt

Basic Econometrics-From N.Gujarati Prof. Long xiaoyu Dept of Economics Management XIPT 029o) lxyu@xiyou.edu.cn * * Chapter 1 The Character of Regression Analysis 1.1 HISTORICAL ORIGIN OF THE TERM REGRESSION Francis Galton, founded that there was a tendency for tall parents to have tall children and for short parents to have short children, the average height of children born of parents of a given height tended to move or “regress” toward the average height in the population as a whole. He found that the average height of sons of a group of tall fathers was less than their fathers’ height and the average height of sons of a group of short fathers was greater than their fathers’ height, thus “regressing” tall and short sons alike toward the average height of all men. * * Chapter 1 The Character of Regression 1.2 THE MODERN INTERPRETATION OF REGRESSION --Regression analysis is concerned with the study of the dependence of one variable, the dependent variable, on one or more other variables, the explanatory variables, with a view to estimating and/or predicting the (population) mean or average value of the former in terms of the known or fixed (in repeated sampling) values of the latter. --Ex.1: The dependence of personal consumption expenditure on aftertax or disposable real personal income. Such an analysis may be helpful in estimating the MPC, or average change in consumption expenditure for a dollar’s worth of change in real income (see Figure 1.3). * * Chapter 1 The Character of Regression 1.2 THE MODERN INTERPRETATION OF REGRESSION --EX.2: A monopolist who can fix the price or output (but not both) may want to find out the response of the demand for a product to changes in price. Such an experiment may enable the estimation of the price elasticity, may help deter-mine the most profitable price. Why? * * Chapter 1 The Character of Regression 1.2 THE MODERN INTERPRETATION OF REGRESSION --Ex.3: Celebrated Phillips curve- relating changes in the mon