电力系统灾害应急管理及城市电网.ppt

Disaster Risk Assessment and Management of Electrical Systems in Urban areas Vilas Mujumdar, P.E. VSM Associates Vienna, VA USA 4th China International Conference on Electricity Distribution CICED 2010 Nanjing, China Sept. 12-16, 2010 1 Hazards to be Considered Natural Hazards (have been increasing over time) Earthquakes Hurricanes Floods Fires Other natural hazards e.g. landslides should be considered on a local condition basis Occurrence of event determined Probabilistically Natural Hazard risks are aleatoric by nature and can be dealt with probabilistic models Probability for each hazard event is different This material is copyrighted and cannot be used without the permission of the author 2 3 Building Stock Transportation Systems Utility Systems Communication Systems Physical Damage Transient Hazard P H Y S I C A L S Y S T E M S V U L N E R A B I L I T Y S O C IE T A L S Y S T E M S V U L N E R A B I L I T Y B U I L T E N V I R O N M E N T Consequences Short Term Long Term Immediate Response a. Provide basic needs b. Restore Critical Infrastructure 1.Transportation 2. Power, Water, Gas, Communications 3. Hospitals Long Term Assess Damage Physical Systems Societal Systems b. Develop Policy 1. Reconstruction 2. Alternates, redesign 3. Economic recovery 4. Long term health issues 5. Sustainability Societal impact This material is copyrighted and cannot be used without the permission of the author Vulnerability Coping Response Recovery Hazard to Disaster Natural hazards are probabilistic and cannot be avoided Robust risk analysis and effective risk management can reduce the impact of hazard Physical infrastructure systems Consider systems interdependency Develop joint fragilities functions Socio - economic systems Decide “acceptance conditions ” Define clear organizational responsibilities Develop Emergency management capacity and recovery plans Develop community resilience This material is copyrig