基于LMDI分解的中美印俄德五国 NDC评估.pdfVIP

Climate Change Research Letters 气候变化研究快报, 2017, 6(4), 273-281 Published Online September 2017 in Hans. /journal/ccrl /10.12677/ccrl.2017.64030 The NDC Evaluation of China, the USA, India, Russia and Germany Based on LMDI Method Mengya Wu, Jiahai Yuan, Changhong Zhao North China Electric Power University, Beijing th th th Received: Sep. 11 , 2017; accepted: Sep. 24 , 2017; published: Sep. 27 , 2017 Abstract Climate change and energy governance are the common challenges facing human society today, and carbon emissions are a key concern. This paper constructs a carbon emission identity based on population, economy, energy intensity and energy structure and employs LMDI decomposition technology to decompose carbon emissions in China, the United States, India, Russia and Germany from 2000 to 2013. According to the NDC submitted by each country, the paper predicts the con- tribution of the four effects to total carbon emissions during 2014-2030. The results show that the economic scale is the main factor to increase national carbon emissions and energy intensity is the main inhibitory factor, while the effects of population and energy structure effect on carbon emis- sions vary from country to country. Only Germany’s carbon emissions are declining in the study period, and all the rest are on the rise. Our study indicates the importance of more effective efforts of global governments in fighting against global warming. Keywords Primary Energy Consumption Carbon Emissions, Kaya Identity, LMDI Model, NDC 基于LMDI分解的中美印俄德五国 NDC评估 吴梦雅，袁家海，赵长红 华北电力大学，北京 收稿日期：2017年9月11 日；录用日期：2017年9月24 日；发布日期：2017年9月27 日 文章引用: 吴梦雅, 袁家海, 赵长红. 基于LMDI 分解的中美印俄德五国NDC 评估[J]. 气候变