吉林城干旱缺水风险评价体系与模型研究-自然灾害学报.PDFVIP

14 6 Vo.l 14, No. 6 2005 12 JOURNAL OF NATURAL DISASTERS Dec. , 2005 : 1004-4574(2005) 06-0100-05 1 1 2 金冬梅 , 张继权 , 韩俊山 ( 1. , 130024; 2. , 130021) :, , , , , (UDRI),, GIS, :; ;; : X43 : A R isk assessm en t sy stem and m odel research on urban drough t and water shortage in J ilin P rovince 1 1 2 JIN Dong-mei, ZHANG Ji-quan , HAN Jun-shan ( 1. College ofU rban and Environmental Sciences, NortheastN ormalUniversity, Changchun 130024, China; 2. SongliaoW ater Resources Comm ission, M inistry ofWater Resources, Changchun 130021, China) Abs tract: Thewater shortage, especially for city seriously affects the social and econom ic developm ent of city and becomes aworld-w ide problem. Jilin Province is one of the major provincesw ith drought andwater shortage in the Northern China. Drought andwater shortage are characterized by their high frequency, broad range and great loss. This study presents amodel of risk assessm ent of urban drought and water shortagewhich integrates hazard, expo- sure, vulnerability and emergency response and recovery capability in Jilin Province, China by using natural disas- ter risk indexmethod, weighted comprehensive analysis and analytic hierarchy process and the technology of natural disaster risk assessment. The degree of thewater shortage is assessed by the risk assessmentmodel, the riskmap of urban drought and water shortage is drawn based on GIS. This study can be expected to provide solid theories and technological supports for taking comprehensive and active measurem ents to fight drought in Jilin