贵金属投资技术分析英文版-45.pptVIP

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * Long Term Investing in a Short Term World Michael J. Mauboussin Chief Investment Strategist Legg Mason Capital Management Long Term Investing in a Short Term World... It’s as Easy as PIE * PIE P I E sychology ncentives xpectations Not * Agenda The Barriers Psychology Incentives The Evidence Corporations Investors/Investment managers The Solution Social context A look at winners Time arbitrage * Barriers to Long Term Thinking Phenomenon Effect Availability bias Accounting versus economic focus Recency bias Betting on what has worked Stress Creates a short-term focus Agent/principal shift Agency costs Incentives Psychology * Corporations Source: Brian J. Hall and Jeffrey B. Liebman, “Are CEOs Really Paid Like Bureaucrats?” NBER Working Paper 6213, October 1997; “2004 CEO Compensation Survey and Trends,” Wall Street Journal/Mercer Human Resource Consulting, May 2005; LMCM estimates. 1985 2005 CEO Compensation 1995 Tied to stock market 43% Tied to stock market 1% Tied to stock market 60% * Corporations “Earnings are in a class by themselves” Four reasons: Investors need a simple metric to summarize performance EPS gets the broadest media distribution and coverage Focus on EPS makes the analyst’s job easier Analysts evaluate a firm’s progress based on making EPS Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2004. * Firms are willing to sacrifice economic value in order to meet a short-run earnings target The preference for smooth earnings is so strong that 78% of surveyed executives would give up economic value in exchange for smooth earnings! EPS Obsession Source: John R. Graham, Campbell R. Harvey, and Shiva Rajgopal, “The Economic Implications of Corporate Financial Reporting,” NBER Working Paper, March 2004. * Investors From Principals to Agents Individual investors Financial institutions 1950 2000 Source: