能源消费波动与GDP外文文献.pdfVIP

International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy Vol. 3, No. 4, 2013, pp.384-394 ISSN: 2146-4553 Does Energy Consumption Volatility Affect Real GDP Volatility? An Empirical Analysis for the UK Abdul Rashid International Institute of Islamic Economics (IIIE), International Islamic University (IIU), Islamabad, Pakistan. Email: ch.arahmad@, abdulrashid@.pk. Ozge Kandemir Kocaaslan Department of Economics, Faculty of Social and Administrative Sciences, Hacettepe University, Ankara, Turkey. E-mail:ozge.kandemir@.tr. ABSTRACT: This paper empirically examines the relation between energy consumption volatility and unpredictable variations in real gross domestic product (GDP) in the UK. Estimating the Markov switching ARCH model we find a significant regime switching in the behavior of both energy consumption and GDP volatility. The results from the Markov regime-switching model show that the variability of energy consumption has a significant role to play in determining the behavior of GDP volatilities. Moreover, the results suggest that the impacts of unpredictable variations in energy consumption on GDP volatility are asymmetric, d