Estimation of Uncertainties in Aerosol Simulations due to Emission 由于排放的气溶胶模拟的不确定性估计.ppt

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Assessment of Global Climate Change Impacts on Regional Ozone and PM2.5 Issues To cut out a lot of repetitive stuff… Modeling Procedure Air Quality Simulation Domain Emission Inventory Projection Emission Inventory Projection Regional Emissions Emission Changes Summary of Air Quality Simulations Approach I Impact of Future Climate Change on Ground-level Ozone and PM2.5 Concentrations - Not the central focus of this research, but important and interesting for comparison Impact of Potential Climate Change and Planned Controls on Average Max8hrO3 Impact of Potential Climate Change on PM2.5 Annual Averaged Changes from 2001 in Averaged Max8hrO3 PM2.5 Regional Predicted Max8hrO3 Characteristics Assessment II Sensitivity Analysis of Ground-level Ozone and PM2.5 ? Now this is more of our focus Seminormalized First-order SensitivityCalculated using DDM-3D Si,j : sensitivity Ci : concentration of pollutant i Ej : emission of precursor j Sensitivities of Daily 4th Highest 8-hr Ozone Summertime Ozone Sensitivities to Anthropogenic NOx Emissions Spatial Distribution of Sensitivities of Annual Ozone to Anthropogenic NOx Emissions Sensitivities of Speciated PM2.5 Formation Summertime Sensitivities of Sulfate Aerosol to SO2 Emissions Spatial Distribution of Sensitivities of PM2.5 Formation to SO2 Emissions Assessment III Uncertainty Analysis of Impact of Climate Change Forecasts on Regional Air Quality and Emission Control Responses ? A second central question Uncertainties are Considered for: (MIT’s IGSM) Anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases Anthropogenic emissions of short-lived climate-relevant air pollutants Oceanic heat uptake Specific aerosol forcing Uncertainty Uncertainty Simulations Our studies suggested that T and Abs. Hum. had major impacts Perturbations: -- 3-dimensional temperature -- 3-dimensional absolute humidity Levels of perturbation: -- 99.5th percentile (High-extreme) -- 50th percenti