KER2010年8月亚洲经济研究报告.pdf

August 2010 No.61 KERI E CONOMIC B ULLETIN Contents Executive Summary 02 Economic Trends and Outlook 03 Recent Developments Outlook for 2nd Half of 2010 Policy Issue 17 Recent Publications 19 Korea Economic Research Institute Executive Summary Korean Economic Korean economic growth is expected to slow from 7.6% in the first Growth for 2nd Half half of this year to 4.6% in the second half. The major factors in the slowdown are a set-back of the recovery trend in the global economy Projected at 4.6%, following financial instability in Europe, the recent decline of economic Down from 7.6% in 1st indicators in China and the United States, normalization of domestic Half macroeconomic policy, and base effects from the growth trend of last year, which was high in the first and low in the second half. In the second half, private consumption is expected to grow 3%, with interest rate hikes, decline of real estate business conditions and employment growth slowdown. Facility investment, which posted strong 29% growth in the first half, may slacken to the 12% level in the second half, affected by stagnation of economic recovery trends in major countries, domestic interest rate hikes, full-fledged implementation of corporate restructu