NRDC中国的低碳强度目标分析.pdf

NRDC WHITE PAPER Putting it into Perspective: China’s Carbon Intensity Target David Cohen-Tanugi Natural Resources Defense Council October 2010 THIS NRDC WHITE PAPER IS SUBJECT TO REVISION PRIOR TO FINAL PUBLICATION NRDC White Paper – Putting it into Perspective: China‘s Carbon Intensity Target Executive Summary As the world‘s largest emitter of heat-trapping greenhouse gases (GHGs), China has a crucial role to play in the global fight against climate change. In December 2009, as a participant in the Copenhagen Accord, China pledged to carry out a domestically binding target to reduce its economy‘s carbon intensity by 40 to 45 percent by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. International observers continue to debate the significance of China‘s carbon intensity target. The Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) has created this white paper to present our analysis of China‘s proposed carbon intensity target and the actions that will be required to achieve it. The paper considers three emissions growth scenarios to help clarify the implications of China‘s carbon intensity target: o Scenario #1: Previous Domestic Commitments finds that if China fulfills only the commitments that were in place prior to its carbon intensity announcement, without extending its energy intensity policies beyond 2010, it would only reduce its carbon intensity by 37 percent from 2005 levels by 2020. o Scenario #2: Extended Efforts suggests that China may be able to surpass its official target given sufficient efforts, which include further reductions in energy intensity through 2020, leading to a reduction in carbon intensity of 48 percent by 2020 compared to 2005 levels. o Scenario #3: Economic Restructuring considers the steps China could take to reduce its carbon intensity by as much as 57 percent by 20