SINOLOGY人民币升值研究.pdf

with Andy Rothman RMB MADNESS Of course China is a currency manipulator! China is among a group of about 60 countries that peg their exchange rates to the dollar. But pegging isn’t immoral or illegal, does not violate WTO or IMF rules, and for 15 years the US Treasury has found that it also does not violate American law. China is already the third-largest export market for US firms. And China is, by a huge margin, the fastest growing market for US goods. Between 2000 and 2009, US exports to China rose 330%, while US exports to the rest of the world rose only 29%. China is not stealing American jobs. The nonpartisan Congressional Research Service recently concluded that an undervalued RMB ‘is expected to have no medium or long-run effect on aggregate US employment or unemployment.’ RMB appreciation will not solve America’s economic problems and will not reduce US unemployment. American consumers benefits. An undervalued RMB has helped keep US inflation low and has increased the purchasing power of US households. China has moved on its currency. From mid-2005 through mid-2008 the RMB appreciated 21.2% against the dollar, until Beijing suspended the process in response to the collapse of China’s exports and the global financial crisis. China will move again, if given political space. Since last fall, we have been forecasting that Beijing will resume gradual appreciation in mid-2010, when a recovery in Chinese exports will enable Beijing to make a convincing argument to its own people that it is resuming appreciation on its own terms. Signals from the leadership. In recent weeks we’ve seen many signals that Beijing intends to