全球商品研究2011年4月.pdf

Global Commodities Research Global Commodities Research Grains Grains Week of April 4, 2011 Fundamental Outlook SHAWN McCAMBRIDGE The USDA Senior Grains Analyst reports were bullish for corn, supporting sharp gains into Corn Corn the weekend Corn traded sharply higher following the USDA reports last week, supported by tighter old crop supplies and the need for favorable weather conditions throughout the 2011/12 growing season. As farmers begin planting in the Fundamental southern U.S., others across the Corn Belt hope that temperatures will begin factors for to warm and soils begin to dry. There is plenty of time to get the crop planted, but any real or perceived threat to production will likely rally prices. wheat are For the week, May corn was up $0.46½ per bushel and December corn was up beginning to $0.28 per bushel. weaken, as Corn prices have been choppy, favoring a lower trend in recent weeks, world wheat pressured by long liquidation from the funds and lack of fresh fundamental production input. This changed last week after the USDA issued its Grain Stocks report and Prospective Plantings report, both considered bullish by traders. The prospects are Grain Stocks report reflected second quarter usage for 2010/11, providing the promising market with better insight into the pace of domestic demand. Ahead of the report, the market felt a March 1 stocks figure around 6.701 billion bush