全球温室气体排放研究报告2015.pdfVIP

What will global annual emissions of greenhouse gases be in 2030, and will they be consistent with avoiding global warming of more than 2°C? 2 Introduction Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) agreed at the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in Lima, Peru, in December 2014 to set out their “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDCs) during the first quarter of 2015, ahead of COP21 in Paris, France, in December 2015. These INDCs are expected to include an indication of expected annual emissions beyond 2020 (many Parties provided information about their annual emissions in 2020 following COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark, in December 2009). As of 30 April 2015, 35 countries, including the 28 Member 1 States of the European Union, have submitted INDCs . In addition, China has already provided some indication of what may be included in its INDC. This note describes the preliminary calculation of what global annual emissions in 2030 could be, based on the INDCs and announcements by some of the largest emitters: the European Union, the United States and China. This calculation is compared with published emissions pathways that are consistent with the 2 international goal of avoiding global warming of more than 2°C . Our conclusions are provided in the final section of this paper. We think that it is important to offer a preliminary analysis of how the pledges and announcements by some of the biggest emitters, together with assumptions about current and planned policies by other countries, compare against pathways for staying within the global warming limit of 2°C. This allows us to confirm that there is a gap between the emi