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全球温室气体排放研究报告2015
What will global annual emissions of
greenhouse gases be in 2030, and will they be
consistent with avoiding global warming of
more than 2°C?
2
Introduction
Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
(UNFCCC) agreed at the 20th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP20) in
Lima, Peru, in December 2014 to set out their “intended nationally determined
contributions” (INDCs) during the first quarter of 2015, ahead of COP21 in Paris,
France, in December 2015. These INDCs are expected to include an indication of
expected annual emissions beyond 2020 (many Parties provided information
about their annual emissions in 2020 following COP15 in Copenhagen, Denmark,
in December 2009). As of 30 April 2015, 35 countries, including the 28 Member
1
States of the European Union, have submitted INDCs . In addition, China has
already provided some indication of what may be included in its INDC. This note
describes the preliminary calculation of what global annual emissions in 2030
could be, based on the INDCs and announcements by some of the largest
emitters: the European Union, the United States and China. This calculation is
compared with published emissions pathways that are consistent with the
2
international goal of avoiding global warming of more than 2°C .
Our conclusions are provided in the final section of this paper. We think that it is
important to offer a preliminary analysis of how the pledges and announcements
by some of the biggest emitters, together with assumptions about current and
planned policies by other countries, compare against pathways for staying within
the global warming limit of 2°C. This allows us to confirm that there is a gap
between the emi
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