油价和新气候经济.pdfVIP

OIL PRICES AND THE NEW CLIMATE ECONOMY EXECUTIVE SUMMARY After several years at high levels, oil prices dropped by more than half between June 2014 and January 2015. This realignment has caused companies and countries to reconsider their energy choices. They have to account not just for current lower prices, but also for the economic implications of uncertain and volatile oil prices, and for what this means for longer-term trends. Page The New Climate Economy Report, published last September by the Global Commission on the 1 Economy and Climate. The report found there were many actions countries could take to promote better growth, structural change in economies and energy systems remain even with a situation of lower oil prices. 1. Low oil prices offer welcome short-term economic relief for consumers, but medium- and long-term prices remain uncertain. Energy price volatility is high and hurts economic growth. Overall, cheaper oil provides a stimulus to the world economy, but with uneven effects. The world now uses 90 million barrels per day, so an oil price of, say, US$60 instead of $100 would save consumers US$1.3 trillion per year. Despite losses to oil producers, globally the net effect is positive. Modelling by the International Monetary 2016 than it would be otherwise. Countries cannot bank on future low fossil fuel prices. While it is tempting to think lower prices are here to stay, history tells us that large price swings are a poor guide to what happens next. Even now, forecasts for the The sharp drop in prices has a sting in its tail: price volatility hurts the economy. While uncertainty is a fact of are few short-term options to reduce consumption, and it has widespread knock-on effects on other key inputs to economic activity. Energy price volatility is therefore a major concern. It hurts the economy, delaying business investment, requiring costly reallocation o