甘肃省近60年来水资源演变及趋势预测研究【精选】.pdfVIP

甘肃省近 60 年来水资源演变及趋势预测研究 王启优 (甘肃省水文水资源勘测局 ,兰州 730000) 摘 　要 :本文利用 4 1 个水资源代表站自建站以来的原始观测序列来分析甘肃省地表水资源的 变化规律以及对其演变趋势进行超长期预测 。分内陆河流域 、黄河流域 、长江流域分别做趋势 分析 、显著性检验和跳跃检验 ,从另一个更加确切 、更加真实 、更加直观的角度来认识甘肃省地 表水资源量的演变规律 ,并且运用比较适合甘肃省干旱半干旱地区的水文模拟模型来对未来 15 年各代表站的降水量和径流量进行超长期的预测和展望 ,希望能给水资源管理者提供有利 的决策支撑数据 。 关键词 :演变趋势 ;规律 ;预测研究 ;水资源 ;甘肃省 ( ) 中图分类号 : TV 12 1 　　文献标识码 :A 　　文章编号 :1006009X 2008 Water resources evol ution and tendency f orecast research of Gansu in the past 60 years Wang Qiyou ( ) Gans u H y d rology an d Wate r R es ou rces S u rvey i ng B u reau , L anz hou 730000 , Chi na Abstract :The article ha s u sed t he original ob servation sequence s since 4 1 wat er rep re sent ative st ation s were set up to analyze Gan su surf ace wat er change r ule s an d car ry on it s ult ralon gt er m foreca st to it s evolution t endency . The inland river ba sin , t he Yellow River valley an d t he Yangtze River valley were sep arat ely to make t he t rend analy si s , t he p ro minence examination an d t he j ump examination to under st and t he evolution rule s of surf ace wat er quantit y of Gan su Province f ro m anot her more p reci se , more real , more vi sual angle an d to u se hydrolo gical simulation mo del w hich i s more suit able to arid an d semiarid area s of our p rovince to foreca st p recipit ation and r unoff of every rep re sent ative st ation s ult ralo ngt er m for 15 year s in t he f ut ure . Hop ef ully it can p rovide t he advant ageou s p olicymakin g st r ut dat a for t he wat er re so