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Introduction * 4/28/06 710-20-P354701A Copyright ? 2003-2006 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved. E/PDA10-OH101bEW Problem Solving and Decision Making Introduction Copyright ? 2006 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved Founded in 1958 by Dr Charles Kepner查尔斯·凯普纳and Dr Benjamin Tregoe本杰明·特雷高 A global management consulting firm, based in Princeton, New Jersey, USA普林斯顿,新泽西州 Pioneers in managerial Problem Solving and Decision Making (PSDM) research and the authors of the “The Rational Manager.” Global footprint (serving 50 countries in 20 different languages) More than 11 million managers and staff trained in systematic PSDM thinking worldwide A well established (50 years of experience) results-based consulting firm specializing in Strategy, Operations Improvement and Skill Development. Our objective is to configure our proprietary processes into application models which can deliver real and tangible results to our clients. Problem Solving Decision Making Problem Analysis Describe Problem Identify Possible Causes Evaluate Possible Causes Confirm True Cause Decision Analysis Clarify Purpose Evaluate Alternatives Assess Risks Make Decision Potential Problem (Opportunity) Analysis Identify Potential Problems (Opportunities) Identify Likely Causes Take Preventive (Promoting) Action Plan Contingent (Capitalizing)Action and Set Triggers SituationAppraisal Identify Concerns Set Priority Plan Next Steps Plan Involvement Copyright ? 2006 Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. All Rights Reserved 情形评估 有偏差吗? 识别关注点 情形评估流程图 主题背景 有什么威胁或机会 关注点需要怎样分离或澄清 设置优先级 对什么有影响? 如:人员,安全,成本,生产,客户等 对将来有影响吗? 时间期限是什么 总体最高优先级? 下一步计划 原因不知道吗 想知道原因吗 要做决策吗? 措施需要得 到保护吗? 措施需要得 到加强吗? 感觉需求不清楚 计划潜在问题分析 计划潜在机会分析 决策分析 问题分析 yes yes yes yes yes yes no no no no no no - 潜在问题 (机会)分析 KT情形评估 Rational Thinking Processes Outlined What could go wrong? Why did that happen? Which is best for us? Actual Should Deviation Problem Analysis Explain what changed (past) To avoid jumps to cause Decision Analysis Choose the best
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