全球经济再平衡与国际储备货币体系改革.doc

Reform of Global Reserve System: Prospects for Super-sovereign Currency (GUAN Tao, Balance of Payments Department, SAFE) The 2008 global financial crisis has highlighted weaknesses and inherent vulnerability of the existing global reserve system based on a single sovereign credit. Its reform is well warranted. Nevertheless, in the foreseeable future, proposals for super-sovereign currency will still be hard to be put into implementation. A more realistic path of reform is to have a multiple reserve currency system. Ⅰ. Problems in the Sovereign Credit Based System Under the Bretton Woods system, the US dollar became the core reserve currency via the “double-pegged” mechanism. After the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the dollar remains as the pillar of the current international monetary system as a result of market selection and path dependence, although the comprehensive national strength of the US has significantly decreased since the early postwar period. The dependence on a single sovereign currency has been the most controversial point in the debate over current international monetary system. Non-equality of the current reserve system was fully exposed during the 2008 international financial crisis. “The dollar is our currency, but your problem.” Inflation and dollar devaluation are the two important ways which the US can employ to reduce debt burden and pass out crisis under dollar privilege. And the privilege does not just belong to the US. Both the launch and tapering of major developed economies’ QE policies have had huge spillover effects to emerging markets, who have been suffering “fleecing of the flock” repeatedly since the 2008 crisis. Triffin dilemma is still an issue faced by reserve currency countries. The demonetization of gold after the collapse of the Bretton Woods system freed the U.S. from the dilemma between providing dollar liquidity and maintaining the peg of the dollar against gold. The US acquired broader policy space. However, wit