货币银行学-第5章.pptVIP

? 2005 Pearson Education Canada Inc. Chapter 5 The Behaviour of Interest Rates 利率分析方法之比较 存量（分析）：存量是指某一经济量在某一时间点上的值，只能在某个时点上衡量，即他的定量没有时间范围。 流量（分析）：指在一定时期内某种经济变量变动的数值，它只能在一定时期内衡量，定量要有时间范围。 关系：存量分析中使用时点均衡分析法，强调经济系统的瞬间均衡，就不能揭示流量的波动；承认流量的波动，存量均衡就受到破坏。 5-* 利率决定理论的发展 古典利率决定理论 魏克赛尔的累计利率理论 流动性偏好理论 罗伯特森可贷资金理论。 5-* 5-* Determinants of Asset Demand 5-* Derivation of Bond Demand Curve(债券需求价格的推导） (F – P) i = RETe = P Point A: P = $950 ($1000 – $950) i = = 0.053 = 5.3% $950 Bd = $100 billion 5-* Derivation of Bond Demand Curve Point B: P = $900 ($1000 – $900) i = = 0.111 = 11.1% $900 Bd = $200 billion Point C: P = $850, i = 17.6% Bd = $300 billion Point D: P = $800, i = 25.0% Bd = $400 billion Point E: P = $750, i = 33.0% Bd = $500 billion Demand Curve is Bd in Figure 1 which connects points A, B, C, D, E. Has usual downward slope 5-* Derivation of Bond Supply Curve（债券供给曲线的推导） Point F: P = $750, i = 33.0%, Bs = $100 billion Point G: P = $800, i = 25.0%, Bs = $200 billion Point C: P = $850, i = 17.6%, Bs = $300 billion Point H: P = $900, i = 11.1%, Bs = $400 billion Point I: P = $950, i = 5.3%, Bs = $500 billion Supply Curve is Bs that connects points F, G, C, H, I, and has upward slope 5-* Supply and Demand Analysis ofthe Bond Market Market Equilibrium 1. Occurs when Bd = Bs, at P* = $850, i* = 17.6% 2. When P = $950, i = 5.3%, Bs Bd (excess supply): P ? to P*, i ?to i* 3. When P = $750, i = 33.0, Bd Bs (excess demand): P ? to P*, i ? to i* 5-* Loanable Funds Terminology（可贷资金术语） 1. Demand for bonds = supply of loanable funds 2. Supply of bonds = demand for loanable funds 5-* Shifts in the Bond Demand Curve（需求曲线的位移） 5-* Factors that Shift the Bond Demand Curve（导致债券需求曲线位移的因素） 1. Wealth A. Economy grows, wealth ?, Bd ?, Bd shifts out to right 2. Expected Return A. i ? in future, Re for long-term bonds ?, Bd shifts out to right B. ?e ?, Relative Re ?, Bd shifts out to right C. Expected return of other assests ?, Bd ?, Bd shifts out to right 3