人工智能的课件CH14_Bayesian network-part1.ppt

* 智能计算研究中心 XIV. Bayesian networks(section 1-3) Autumn 2012 Instructor: Wang Xiaolong Harbin Institute of Technology, Shenzhen Graduate School Intelligent Computation Research Center (HITSGS ICRC) Outlines Syntax Semantics Parameterized distributions Bayesian networks A simple, graphical notation for conditional independence assertions and hence for compact specification of full joint distributions Syntax: a set of nodes, one per variable a directed, acyclic graph (link ≈ directly influences) a conditional distribution for each node given its parents: P (Xi | Parents (Xi)) In the simplest case, conditional distribution represented as a conditional probability table (CPT) giving the distribution over Xi for each combination of parent values Example Topology of network encodes conditional independence assertions: Weather is independent of the other variables Toothache and Catch are conditionally independent given Cavity Example Im at work, neighbor John calls to say my alarm is ringing, but neighbor Mary doesnt call. Sometimes its set off by minor earthquakes. Is there a burglar? Variables: Burglary, Earthquake, Alarm, JohnCalls, MaryCalls Network topology reflects causal knowledge: A burglar can set the alarm off An earthquake can set the alarm off The alarm can cause Mary to call The alarm can cause John to call Example contd. Compactness A CPT for Boolean Xi with k Boolean parents has 2k rows for the combinations of parent values Each row requires one number p for Xi = true(the number for Xi = false is just 1-p) If each variable has no more than k parents, the complete network requires O(n · 2k) numbers I.e., grows linearly with n, vs. O(2n) for the full joint distribution For burglary net, 1 + 1 + 4 + 2 + 2 = 10 numbers (vs. 25-1 = 31) Semantics The semantics of Bayesian networks: A representation of the joint probability distribution. (Numerical semantics) An encoding of a collection of conditional independence statements. (Topolo