【2018年整理】资金流与金融风险管理.pptVIP

International Finance:Managing Capital Flows and Financial Risks Capital Flow Volatility and Financial Risks:Overview Capital Flow Volatility Financial Risks I. Rise and Fall of Capital Flows Capital flow volatility Implicit government guarantees market failures Volatility hurts growth and hurts the poor most II. New issues in managing risks Fiscal risks and gov’t contingent liabilities Derivatives and risks “Value at Risk” Early warning indicators Short term flows and crises Global Integration and Capital Flow Volatility The rise and fall of international capital flows:capital market flows are volatile Capital Flow Volatility: FDI is More Stable Large reversals in net private capital flows Capital Flow Volatility is linked with Volatile Growth Banking Crises and aftermath are extremely costly for the real economy: unfair burden for the poor Growth Volatility hurts the poor most Financial Deepening in the Domestic Economy can facilitate Economic Growth, however... Capital Account Openness is negatively related with GDP Growth II. New Issues in managing risks: an overview of new topics in this course Financial and fiscal risks are linked Capital flow volatility may lead to a rising government contingent liabilities Derivatives may lead to heightened systemic risks (see Steinherr’s book) “Value at risk” method is important Early warning indicators of financial crises Short term debt should be controlled, regulated, and monitored, carefully. Fiscal cost of banking crises, % of GDP Derivatives may lead to heightened systemic risk: Markets have been growing rapidly, 1991-1997 Value at Risk (VAR) is an important tool to measure risk “The Daily Earning at Risk for our combined trading activities averaged approximately $15million…” J.P. Morgan 1994 annual report VAR summarizes the expected maximum loss (or worst loss) over a target horizon (day/month) within a given confidence interval. It allows us to estimate company-wide risks in one number and compare across