实例-共同货币对国际贸易影响Meta分析 .pptVIP

. Tijt : the natural logarithm of trade between countries i and j at time t. : set of nuisance coefficients Dij: the log of the distance between i and j Y: the log of real GDP Z: other controls for bilateral trade CUijt: dummy variable (currency union at t) U: well-behaved disturbance term : partial effect of currency union on trade (ceteris paribus) * . The surprising and interesting finding is that currency union seemed to have a very large effect on trade. The coefficient for a currency union dummy variable has a point estimate of around 1.2 (Rose 2000). This estimate implies that members of currency unions traded over three times as much as otherwise similar pairs of countries, ceteris paribus (Why???) There was no previous benchmark in the literature, this estimate seemed implausibly large . Almost all the subsequent research in this area has been motivated by the belief that currency union cannot reasonably be expected to triple trade. * . Meta- Analysis across Studies: It is a set of quantitive techniques for evaluating and combining empirical results from different studies. Different point estimates of a given coefficient may be treated as individual observations. Once compiled The hypothesis that the coefficient is 0 To estimate the coefficient of interest more accurately * Rose and Stanley analyze 34 papers and 754 differents estimates of gamma. There are a sufficient number of studies that have provided estimates of the effect of currency union trade and Meta- Analysis seems an appropiate way to summarize the current state of the literature. Most of them are representative and each estimate is weighted equally. The central concern of this method is to test the null hypothesis: gamma = 0, where all estimates are combined. The classic test comes from Fisher and this hypothesis is easily rejected at standard significance level. * However