从《广场协议》看人民币升值汇率问题.pptVIP

Influences of Plaza Accord To America: eased the difficulty of the domestic economy, won the opportunities to adjust economic structure, 10 years rapid economic development in the 1990s To Japan: a series of the chain effect, immeasurable influences Economic Bubble The Japanese asset price bubble from 1986 to 1991, in which real estate and stock prices greatly inflated(飞涨). allowed local companies to invest in capital resources →reduced the price of Japanese-made goods and widened the trade surplus further the yen appreciating →financial assets became very lucrative（获利多的） speculation was inevitable (投机活动) 日本股票价格和土地价格的变动情况 Japan sank in depression in 1990s 1. the unemployment rate was increasing 1960~1980s ≤2% 1990s ≥2% in March, April, 1999 the worst figure 4.8% 2. Prices decline(物价下降): a typical feature of deflationary effect (通货紧缩效应) ↓ The level of industrial profit slumps, deteriorating the living environment of manufacturing industry 3. Excess productive capacity（生产能力过剩）→ to enlarge industry bankruptcy scale 4. Facing Deflation home and abroad (1997 Asian Financial Crisis) Unemployment rate 　 Deflation in Japan started in the early 1990s The Bank of Japan and the government have tried to eliminate it by reducing interest rates, but this was unsuccessful for over a decade. Systematic reasons: ① Industry have to use capital to repay the interest Incurred excessive debt in economy ②industry cannot get capital→ deflation of economy, prices decline→ raising the actual interest rates Debtors cannot pay back money to banks Bank owns a large amount of bad debts after the bubble burst in 1991 从《广场协议》看人民币汇率升值问题 Background：Since 2002, foreign countries call for the appreciation of the RMB continuously, especially America and Japan. Japan hopes China can sign an accord about the RMB with America and European developed countries, simil