一种缺陷驱动的过程管理方法研究-usccsse.pptVIP

COCOMO Forum 2008 ESEM 2008 Germany Introduction Effort estimation tools and techniques abound, each with its own set of advantages and disadvantages, and no tool stands out to be the silver bullet Introduction (Cont.) OLC Method with an Experimental Study Step 1: Preparing data and component methods Experiment Data Source: individual estimates of COCOMO、SLIM and Function Points for 15 projects from F.Kemerer’s empirical work OLC Method with an Experimental Study Step 2：OLC Modeling (1/2) Essence: Multiple regression analysis using Ordinary Least Square (OLS), estimates of components as independent variables, and actual effort as attributive variable Four extended cases of OLC models OLC Method with an Experimental Study Step 2：OLC Modeling (2/2) In-Sample MSE Comparison Accuracy Comparison after LOOCV (leave-one-out cross-validation LOOCV) OLC Method with an Experimental Study Step 3：Further Improving Predictive Power (1/4) The problem that affects the predictive power of the OLC is the collinearity among the predictors variables Solution： A common and simple way to deal with collineariy is to drop a component involved in the strongest collinearity. Two rules： “High R2( the multiple coefficient of determination [45])but few significant t ratios”. The variables whose coefficients are not significant are involved in collinearity. This rule of thumb helps us to detect collinearity and identify all the variables involved in collinearity. “High pair-wise correlations among regressors”. If the pair-wise or zero-order correlation coefficient between two regressors is high (generally higher than 0.8) then collinearity is a serious problem. This rule of thumb helps us to find the pair involved in the strongest collinearity. OLC Method with an Experimental Study Step 3：Further Improving Predictive Power (2/4) OLC Method with an Experimental Study Step 3：Further Improving Predictive Power (3/4) OLC Method with an Experimental Study Step 3：Further Improving