ShalegascostanalysisUSAvschina中美岩气成本分析.pdf

Shale gas cost analysis: USA vs China Professor Harald Xiao SouthWest Petroleum University/MI haraldx@mit.edu Haraldx@swpu.edu.cn Demand Picture in China  Consumption quadrupled to 10.5bcf/d from 01-10  Another double before 2020  LNG since 2006, deliver 10% consumption Shale gas reserve  MLR 933 tcf  EIA 1275 tcf  Larger than USA 12-5 year plan  Target at 6.5 billion cubic meters  Current : 60+ wells Shale gas in USA  Favorable geology  ISPs  Open market  Competitions Shale gas in China  Geology  Technology  Policy  Water  Price  The Price ceiling: USD 13-14 mmbtu  The Price support: USD 5-6 mmbtu Current cost  Shell USD 400 M15 wells  All in Sichuan, SWPU hometown  5 times of USA Breakeven analysis China vs USA 30 25 20 CAPEX 15 Fi xed cost BE / mcf 10 5 0 Hi gh Low USA China advantage  Skilled relatively low cost labor  Most equipments made in china  Strong demand  Strong price  Large scale development 2015 Tech Breakthrough 10 9 8 7 6 CAPEX 5 FI X Cost BE cost 3 2 1 0 Hi gh l ow USA Thanks  UBS  CLSA