SystemsApproachesforEORscreening提高采收率方法筛选.pdf

Systems Approaches for EOR Screening Alistair Fletcher Parr Systems Pty. Ltd Curtin University of Technology Perth, Australia Representing Uncertainty Evidence that A Evidence that A is successful Uncertainty is not successful 0 1 Systems Concepts Uncertainty A property of information –randomness, fuzziness, conflict, incompleteness and relevance Risk The likelihood of an uncertain event or behavior, and its consequences for our intended purpose or objectives, set in a context that needs to be understood Vulnerability Susceptibility to disproportionate damage from an event or behaviour Hazard A set of incubating preconditions for failure Surprise An unexpected event –an unrecognised risk The Nature of Uncertainty Randomness Lack of a specific pattern in the data or evidence. E.g. noise in oil production figures –detecting oil uplift Vagueness Imprecision of definition E.g. are we talking about low permeability, 10mD, 10.07mD, a high permeability streak in a low permeability matrix? Conflict Equivocation, ambiguity, anomaly or inconsistency in the data or evidence. E.g. a major difference in the log and core derived permeability Incompleteness That which we do not know, know we do not know, do not know we do not know E.g. we are unable to define all the possible alternatives, an effect left out of our model. Relevance Issues and