有关宏观调控的不确定性与法律、政策（Uncertainty, law and policy concerning macro control）.docVIP

有关宏观调控的不确定性与法律、政策（Uncertainty, law and policy concerning macro control） Uncertainty, law and policy concerning macro control First, the macro-control of the uncertainty and the causes as the writer Taleb said in black swan in one book, the swan is generally white, but when the black swan — — major rare events that cannot be predicted, but in contrary to expectation, will change everything. Since Ricardo, the structure of economic theory has encountered a dilemma: economic analysis only to eliminate uncertainty and changes to economic policy, and only carefully considering the uncertainties and changes it may implement. One of Keyness important contributions is to put uncertainty at the center of all stages of economic development, and as the starting point of macroeconomic regulation and control. When it comes to Keyness works, people will first think of employment, interest and money theory, but in fact, probability theory is the most representative of the originality of his work. He believes that the world is essentially a perceptible but uncertain world, or the world in a short period of time can be determined, but in the long term is uncertain, we have to do is in an uncertain world hold we can grasp the. Keynes has a famous saying: in the long run, were all dead.. He believes that the biggest economic ills is risk, uncertainty and ignorance caused by government intervention, not to eliminate the uncertainty (which is not possible nor necessary), but by providing services and information, to make people better use of reason. He denied the risks can be accurately calculated, put forward a variety of unpredictable demand impact factors in the macro economy, the negative impact will cause serious decline in output, deflation, positive impact will result in serious economic overheating and inflation. The understanding of uncertainty constitutes the fundamental difference between him and classical economics. As we all know, macroeconomics and macro-control policies a