Radiation Risk Assessment - National Cancer Institute：辐射风险评估-国家癌症研究所_推荐.pdfVIP

Radiation Risk Assessment Amy Berrington de Gonzalez, DPhil Radiation Epidemiology Branch DCEG/NCI/NIH 1 US Population Radiation Exposure 2006 Average annual exposure per capita • Background radiation 3.1mSv • Medical radiation 3.0mSv • Occupational exposure 1.1mSv NCRP Report 160 (2008) 2 Cancer Risks from Low-dose Radiation Exposures Difficult to Quantify Risks from Low Doses Directly • Infeasibly large sample size lifetime follow-up 2 Mammograms at age 35 60 million women 20 years follow-up 50% power (Land, 1981) Estimate Indirectly using Existing Data • Japanese atomic bomb survivors LNT • Provides a more timely assessment of potential risk 3 Risk Projection Studies - Examples Medical Radiation Exposures • Diagnostic tests – CT, cardiac stress • Screening tests - CT colonography, mammography • Radiotherapy – IMRT scatter dose Environmental Exposures • Lung cancers attributable to radon • Future cancers in the Marshall Islands 4 Risk Assessment Reports • BEIR VII – US population (2006) • UNSCEAR – multiple populations (2008) • Health Protection Agency – UK (2011) 5 Lifetable methods • Risk of radiation-related cancer elevated indefinitely – Apply age-specific ERR (EAR) to obtain excess cancers occurring at each age – Follow the population forward in time allowing for attrition as the population ages • Required information on population of interest – Age-sex composition – Organ-specific doses – Survival (life-tabl