基于时间序列法对海南旅游若干问题的分析-analysis of some problems in hainan tourism based on time series method.docxVIP

AbstractWe concern the following three aspects in this thesis:(1) Base on the the Hainan Tourism overnight total number ,we establish the seasonal adjustment model and ARMA model.By comparing the mean square error of two models,we find that: the short-term forecast of the seasonal adjustment model is superior. Then we, forecasting the total overnight travel number of Hainan from January 2013 to Decem- ber 2013;(2)From the entry night total number from January 2003 to December 2012 and the overnight number of Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan , foreigners,we establish the linear relationship.(3)from the ques- tionnaire of Hainan tourism’s satisfaction, we find that the hainan’s humanities and basis frustration need to be improved.Selection the above three aspects as the main topic of this thesis,the following reasons:(1)The number of tourists is one important indicator of the tourism industry.The character of Time series method isperiodic the future based on the past.(2)With the release of ((a number of opinions under the StateCouncil on Promoting the Development and Building of International Tourism in Hainan Island, Hainan International Tourism Island is raised to national strategies formally.International development to a certain extent,brings opportunities to Hainan,but it also braised great challenges.We establish a liner relationship between Hong Kong, Macao, Taiwan and foreign and the total number of tourists from the past ten years.We determine the respective weights, in order to do jobs related to the total number of more targeted reception work.(3)In recent years,many passengers in hainan are asked to pay more,which is pushed to the cusp again and again.More and more passengers are unsatisfied with hainan’s tourism,which is not good for hainan’s economic.So it is necessary to research by setting the form of a questionnaire in airports, train stations and other places of tourists to Hainan tourism , the tourist satisfaction questionnaire are dissuaded and analyze