Choice Under Uncertainty教程文件.ppt

Chapter 5;Topics to be Discussed;Introduction;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Income from Sales Jobs;Job 1 Expected Income;While the expected values are the same, the variability is not. Greater variability from expected values signals greater risk. Deviation Difference between expected payoff and actual payoff;Deviations from Expected Income ($);Adjusting for negative numbers The standard deviation measures the square root of the average of the squares of the deviations of the payoffs associated with each outcome from their expected value.;Describing Risk;Calculating Variance ($);Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Describing Risk;Outcome Probabilities for Two Jobs;Describing Risk;Unequal Probability Outcomes;Income from Sales Jobs--Modified ($);Describing Risk;Suppose a city wants to deter people from double parking. The alternatives …...;Assumptions: 1) Double-parking saves a person $5 in terms of time spent searching for a parking space. 2) The driver is risk neutral. 3) Cost of apprehension is zero.;A fine of $5.01 would deter the driver from double parking. Benefit of double parking ($5) is less than the cost ($5.01) equals a net benefit that is less than 0.;Increasing the fine can reduce enforcement cost: A $50 fine with a .1 probability of being caught results in an expected penalty of $5. A $500 fine with a .01 probability of being caught results in an expected penalty of $5.;The more risk averse drivers are, the lower the fine needs to be in order to be effective.;Preferences Toward Risk;Preferences Toward Risk;Preferences Toward Risk;Preferences Toward Risk;选择集 选择对象：赌局（gamble、lottery） 其结果不确定 有限结果集(a finite set of outcomes) ： 不包括不确定性 ;简单赌局(simple gambles)： 对A中每一个结果 赋予一定的概率 ，即所针对的赌局所发生的可能结果一定直接局限于A。 定义： ;复合赌局 赌局本身又是赌局的赌局 一般的，我们以 代表赌局（简单或复合），它可被视为一张彩票，奖励可是另一张彩票，当这些彩票都被摇奖后，A中的一些结果将会出现。因此，若 是 中的任意