商业决策技术知识课件 07Quantitative Methods For Decision Makers Chapter 7 MARKET RESEARCH AND STATISTICAL INFERENCE.pptVIP

The Null Hypothesis, H0 Begin with the assumption that the null hypothesis is true Similar to the notion of innocent until proven guilty Refers to the status quo Always contains “=” , “≤” or “?” sign May or may not be rejected (continued) The Alternative Hypothesis, H1 Is the opposite of the null hypothesis e.g., The average number of TV sets in U.S. homes is not equal to 3 ( H1: μ ≠ 3 ) Challenges the status quo Never contains the “=” , “≤” or “?” sign May or may not be proven Is generally the hypothesis that the researcher is trying to prove Formulate the null and alternative hypotheses P=63% n=250 3 categories of hypothesis Lower-tail test: H0: ≥ H1: Upper-tail test: H0: ≤ H1: Two-tail test: H0: = H1: ≠ α α/2 α/2 α -za -za/2 za za/2 Reject H0 if Z -Za Reject H0 if Z Za Reject H0 if Z -Za/2 or Z Za/2 Rejection area Choose between the two hypotheses If Zcalc ＞ Zα then we must reject H0 If Zcalc ≤ Zα then we cannot reject H0 α=0.01 Zα =2.33 Zcalc =2.54 Reject H0 Proportions Sample proportion in the success category is denoted by p the test statistic is a Z value: (continued) Example: Z Test for Proportion A marketing company claims that it receives 8% responses from its mailing. To test this claim, a random sample of 500 were surveyed with 25 responses. Test at the ? = 0.05 significance level. ? Z Test for Proportion: Solution a = 0.05 n = 500, p = 0.05 Reject H0 at ? = 0.05 H0: π = 0.08 H1: π 1 0.08 Critical Values: ± 1.96 Test Statistic: Decision: Conclusion: z 0 Reject Reject .025 .025 1.96 -2.47 There is sufficient evidence to reject the company’s claim of 8% response rate. -1.96 The test statistic value for a sample mean of a large sample Example A local authority has one of its administrative centers located out of town and the majority of employees drive to work. As part of the authority’s green policy various effects have been made to encourage employees to car-share. The author