美元套利交易风险及影响研究.pdf

美元套利交易风险及影响分析 摘 要 在美联储的两轮QE 下，美元套利交易盛行，给新兴市场、全球金融市场和美国自 身产生不可忽视的影响，在为国际金融市场提供海量廉价流动性的同时，推高了新兴市 场的通货膨胀和资产价格泡沫，为全球经济的复苏带来更多的变数，为美国实现社会调 整和经济复苏争取了时间和空间，为美国削弱潜在竞争对手出力不少，为美国实现债务 重置和攫取金融收益提供了可能。本文将在对美元套利交易的概况简要梳理的基础上， 尝试对美元套利交易的动因、模式、风险和影响进行一番有益的探讨，并就美元套利交 易的发展趋势作出判断，美元套利交易将伴随美元指数的底部大幅震荡而一直活跃，并 将加剧全球金融市场的动荡，美元套利交易的终结必将伴随新兴市场经济泡沫的破裂。 最后就中国的现实提出了合理化建议。文章认为，美元套利资本已经深入各个新兴市场， 以中国为首的新兴市场正在经受QE2 结束后伴随的美元套利交易平仓潮的考验，全球经 济出现局部动荡的可能性 加大，经济复苏的步伐将被迟缓。一旦在美联储实施推出战 略后，美国国债价格失去支撑，国债价格崩溃后，美国国债的预期收益率将大涨，这将 助推美国资产收益率预期的上升，为全球范围回流的美元提供投资机会。 关键词 美元套利交易 套利资本 美元指数 新兴市场 A brief analysis of risk and impact from USDollar carry trade ABSTRACT Popular USDollar carry trade has great impact that can not be ignored for the emerging markets, global financial markets and United States because of the QE 1 and QE2 from USFed. Including supplying mass of cheap liquidity for global financial markets, pushing up inflation rate in emerging markets and assets bubbles, bring much variables for the recovery of global economy, winning much time and space for USA s social reform and economy recovery, weakening the potential competitors, achieving the financial benefits and debt reset. On the basis of a brief review about USDollar carry trade, this paper attempts to do some useful discussions related to USDollar carry trade, including it s reasons, patterns, risk, impacts, trends and some possible proposals for china. This article believes that the USDollar carry trade will always be active and increase the turbulence of global financial markets with large swings of USDollar index, and the USDollar carry trade can not be stopped until the emerging market bubble burst. This paper believe that USDollar carry trade has in depth into emerging markets that led by China, they are taking a test of unwinding of USDollar carry trade as the end of QE2, the possibility of local instability in global economy is