中国水泥市场研究报告 China contrete market study.ppt

I:\active\RGL7\Working\DK\RGL7_3IP_Final with TJv1.ppt China Concrete Market Report 中国水泥市场研究报告 In all three cities, we examined a number of key factors that shape the relative attractiveness of a concrete investment Of the three cities under consideration, Qingdao is expected to have the strongest growth rate over the next five years while Tianjin will have the most volume growth in absolute terms In Tianjin, future demand is expected to be concentrated in the city center and Tanggu district In Qingdao, future demand is expected to be concentrated in the Huangdao and Chengyang districts Through 2007, most of the pipeline projects are concentrated in and around the Beijing city center After 2007, development of satellite towns outside the city center will become a main focus in Beijing Continued substitution of premix for site-mix is a key future driver for Qingdao pre-mix growth; substitution is nearly completed in Beijing and Tianjin Further substitution of pre-mix for site-mix concrete in Qingdao will be coming from the outer districts Market size and growth summary Given practical capacity utilization rates of no more than 65% in the three markets, there is a general overhang of supply which has led to increasingly intense competition and falling concrete prices Supply roughly matches the location of future demand in Tianjin and Beijing; there appears to be an opportunity in Qingdao’s Chengyang district Concrete supply is fragmented, but Qingdao is least so Qingdao concrete suppliers appear to have the most bargaining power vis-à-vis customers Among the 3 cities, the new market entrants in Tianjin have gained the most market share over the past two years In Tianjin, the effect of new entrants has been especially striking Rinker’s loss of market share in both Tianjin and Qingdao is attributable to running against capacity constraints while the market grew around it Competitive conditions summary Concrete prices have been dropping in all three markets