外文文献： 收入和能源对油价的影响The Impact of Oil Prices on Income and Energy.pdfVIP

The Impact of Oil Prices on Income and Energy YONG U. GLASURE∗ AND AIE-RIE LEE∗∗ Abstract The major determinant of real income growth in Korea is real oil prices, followed by money supply, exchange rates, energy consumption, and government spending. Over the longer horizon, the eff ects of exchange rates, oil prices, government spending, and money supply become more pronounced. For energy consumption, the most important factor is oil prices, followed by exchange rates, government spending, money supply, and income. For the association between energy consumption and real income, energy consumption infl uences real income growth only through energy consumption, while real income aff ects energy consumption only through the error correction term. The fi ndings of the study thus suggest that the level of economic activity and energy consumption mutually infl uence each other. (JEL Q43, O53); Intíl Advances in Econ. Res., 8(2): c pp. 148- 154, May 02. All Rights Reserved Introduction Crude oil prices have risen by more than $30 a barrel since February 1999, from a low of $10 a barrel in 1998. That is comparable to the three episodes of crude oil price hikes in 1973-74, 1979-80, and 1990. Recent oil price levels also are similar to record high levels during the second oil shock and the Gulf War. Hence, rapidly rising oil prices have become a major concern of oil-importing economies such as Korea, whose reliance on foreign sources for its energy requirements was above 98 percent based upon its total indigenous energy production to foreign imports in 1998. Koreaís oil dependency in 1998 was 3.5 percent